China installed 110.83 GW of solar in nine months, down 53.9% after the 2025 rush
Serguey Asael Shinder2 min readFrom January to September 2026 China connected 110.83 GW of solar, against 240.27 GW in the same months of 2025 — a fall of 53.9% — according to National Energy Administration data reported by pv magazine. The comparison is distorted by 2025: under a pricing reform announced in February 2025, output from new wind and solar projects moved to market-based pricing, with different settlement for projects commissioned before and after 1 June, and developers rushed to connect. Nearly 93 GW was installed in May 2025 alone, and the first half of 2025 reached 212.21 GW against 72.07 GW in the first half of 2026.
The second half looks different. China added about 38.76 GW in the third quarter, up roughly 38% from 28.06 GW a year earlier, and 13.64 GW in September, up 23.6% from August and about 41.2% year on year. Cumulative solar capacity reached 1.313 TW at the end of September, and combined wind and solar exceeded 2.01 TW, about 48.7% of total installed generation capacity of 4.13 TW. Average utilisation hours across all generation fell by 194 to 2,174 in the nine months.
The China Photovoltaic Industry Association cites falling market electricity prices, curtailment and rising project costs as weights on investment, especially for utility-scale projects in resource-rich provinces. It maintains its 2026 forecast of 180 to 240 GW. Reaching even the low end would require about 69.17 GW in the fourth quarter, an average of 23.06 GW a month against 12.92 GW in the third.
What it means
The headline drop is mostly a base effect from the 2025 deadline rush; the recovery since July is the more informative trend. But the arithmetic of the CPIA forecast is demanding: nearly doubling the monthly pace in Q4 would require the kind of year-end push China has produced before. Falling utilisation hours across the whole fleet are the quieter signal that capacity is outrunning the grid's ability to use it.