EIA: heating-oil homes pay about 21% more this winter, gas homes less; Brent seen at $105
Victoria Shinder1 min readThe U.S. Energy Information Administration released its 2026-27 Winter Fuels Outlook with the October Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO) on 6 October.
Heating bills. Households that heat mainly with natural gas or propane, about half of all households, are expected to spend less than last winter; those using electricity or heating oil, more. Heating oil homes, about 3% of households and mostly in the Northeast, are forecast to pay about 21% more for fuel: heating oil prices are expected to rise by more than 30%, partly offset by milder Northeast weather. EIA expects national winter temperatures close to last winter and the 10-winter average, and notes that a strong El Niño could change that.
Why heating oil. "Distillate markets remain tight," said EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey. East Coast distillate inventories were 32% below their five-year seasonal average in September and are forecast to stay 20% to 30% below through the winter. Retail diesel averaged $6.29 per gallon in September and is expected to stay above $6 in October.
Oil. Brent averaged $114 a barrel in September, $23 more than in August. EIA forecasts $105 for the fourth quarter, $14 higher than last month's forecast, as Middle East disruptions draw down global inventories, then $84 in 2027 as flows recover. It expects Middle East shut-ins to fall from 4.5 million barrels a day in 4Q26 to 2.7 million in 1Q27 as transits through the Strait of Hormuz and alternative routes expand.
Gas and power. Natural gas inventories should enter winter 2% above the five-year average; Henry Hub is forecast at $3.16 per MMBtu in 2027, 9% below 2026. Wholesale electricity is forecast to average $52/MWh in 2026, 11% above 2025, with PJM up 41% and Mid-Columbia down 23%; record summer heat lifted consumption 4% in the third quarter.