EIA on the third quarter: Brent futures from $72 to $109, US refineries ran at 95%
Serguey Asael Shinder2 min readThe U.S. Energy Information Administration published its review of petroleum markets in the third quarter of 2026 on 5 October. The short version: crude and product prices rose through the quarter, US refineries ran close to flat out, and diesel and jet fuel became the tightest part of the market.
The crude path. Front-month Brent futures opened the quarter at $72 a barrel on 1 July, the lowest since 26 February — two days before the war in the Middle East began, in EIA's dating. EIA ties the July low to higher flows through the Strait of Hormuz after a 17 June memorandum of understanding. Military strikes resumed on 7 July; futures passed $100 on 23 July, then traded between $79 and $98 until 8 September, moving with statements by US, Iranian and regional leaders and with attacks on Russian export infrastructure. They crossed $100 again on 9 September after strikes on pumping stations along Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, attacks on Saudi tankers near the Bab el-Mandeb and Ukrainian drone attacks on the Russian Black Sea terminal at Novorossiysk. Futures peaked at $109 on 15 September, while spot Brent reached about $132 at the same time — the gap EIA attributes to buyers struggling to find prompt cargoes. Prices averaged about $104 in the last two weeks of the quarter.
Two cushions wore thin. EIA names two things that had softened the shock earlier in the year and weakened in the third quarter: China's crude imports, far below pre-war levels but higher than in May and June, and releases from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which slowed significantly in September.
Refining at the limit. US refinery utilisation averaged 95%, processing the most crude for a third quarter since 2019, when capacity was 4% higher. Margins explain why: the quarterly gasoline crack spread was more than double a year earlier, and distillate and jet fuel cracks almost tripled. EIA links the distillate and jet premium to disrupted refining in Russia, China and the Middle East, which normally supply large shares of those fuels. In the week to 25 September, US distillate inventories were 13% below their 2021–2025 average, gasoline 7% below and jet fuel 3% above.
Reading it from the power side. These are oil numbers, but they reach electricity markets where oil products still set marginal costs — backup diesel, oil-fired peakers, island systems. The more direct link this month is weather: a refinery fleet at 95% has little slack if a Gulf Coast storm takes units offline, which is why EIA flagged refining risk when Hurricane Isaias approached the coast on 9 October.
Source: EIA, Today in Energy, Crude oil prices and refinery margins generally increased throughout the third quarter, 5 October 2026 — https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68245