APS sees Arizona sales doubling by 2041 and keeps Four Corners coal up to 2038
Serguey Asael Shinder2 min readArizona Public Service filed an integrated resource plan with the Arizona Corporation Commission on 30 October, Utility Dive reported. The state's largest utility projects retail sales to roughly double over 15 years, from about 34,200 GWh in 2025 to about 80,600 GWh in 2041, and peak demand to grow about 3.4% a year after customer programmes such as demand-side management. It expects peak demand above 14.5 GW in 2041, almost 60% higher than the record of about 9.2 GW set in August. Large industrial and data centre customers drive the growth.
The preferred plan keeps the Four Corners coal plant in New Mexico running beyond its planned 2031 retirement, potentially to 2038, which APS says could save customers close to 1 billion dollars; the exact date will be decided in later planning. It also brings 2,000 MW of solar and 2,500 MW of storage online by 2029 and adds 4,000 MW of gas generation through 2036, including repowering the Cholla plant as a 387 MW facility by 2030, 1,107 MW of new combustion turbines and uprates in 2026 to 2030, and the 1,238 MW Desert Sun combined-cycle plant in 2032 for large-customer subscription load.
APS lowered its forecasts for electric vehicle and rooftop solar adoption by 18% and 30%, while customer-sited storage could reach 1.2 GW by 2045. To limit the risk of large loads that never materialise, it says it requires minimum demand and energy contract terms, collateral and early exit fees.
The Sierra Club's Grand Canyon Chapter said the plan further delays the move from gas and coal to solar and wind, and Vote Solar said APS failed to consider distributed resources such as rooftop solar and batteries.
What it means
Data centre demand is now long enough in the planning horizon to keep a coal plant open. The contract protections APS describes are the part other utilities facing speculative load will copy.