NESO five-year view: TNUoS revenue to rise from £9.5bn to £13.8bn by 2031/32
Victoria Shinder2 min readBritain's National Energy System Operator published its Five-Year View of Transmission Network Use of System (TNUoS) tariffs for 2027/28 to 2031/32 on 7 October 2026. TNUoS charges recover the cost of building and maintaining the transmission system in England, Wales, Scotland and offshore, and are paid by transmission-connected generators and by suppliers. NESO publishes the view under licence condition E10 and CUSC paragraph 14.29; it does not affect the 2026/27 charging year.
Total revenue. NESO forecasts £9.5bn to be collected in 2027/28 — £0.4bn more than in the Initial Tariffs for that year — rising to £13.8bn in 2031/32. The base case uses transmission owners' data from January 2026; the report also models a case based on the February 2026 price control financial model and high and low cases set 10% above and below the base.
Demand side and households. Revenue recovered through demand residual charges is forecast at £7.97bn in 2027/28, rising to £11.66bn by 2031/32. For the average domestic household, NESO puts the TNUoS cost at £103.24 in 2027/28, which it says is 12% of the average annual electricity bill. That is £20.00 more than under the Final 2026/27 tariffs, when TNUoS was 8.8% of the bill, and £6.39 more than NESO's own Initial Tariffs for 2027/28. Payments to embedded generators under 100 MW through the Embedded Export Tariff are forecast at £32.08m, rising to £41.01m, and the average half-hourly gross tariff at £3.29/kW, rising to £4.05/kW.
Generators. Revenue from generators is forecast at £1.36bn in 2027/28, down £22m since Initial Tariffs, growing to £1.96bn by 2031/32, mainly because of offshore local tariffs. The generation charging base for 2027/28 has been cut by 11.1 GW to 110.7 GW and is expected to reach 158.4 GW in 2031/32. The average generation tariff is £12.32/kW in 2027/28 and £12.35/kW at the end of the period. Because total recovery from generators must stay within an average of €0–2.50/MWh under the Limiting Regulation, the negative adjustment tariff deepens from about −£2.17/kW to about −£5.39/kW.
What is left out. No methodology changes have been approved since the Initial Tariffs, so none are included. The government's Reformed National Pricing programme, which is reforming locational charges for new assets, is explicitly not part of this forecast, and price-control parameters for the period after April 2031 are assumed in line with RIIO-ET3. NESO calls the report an estimate published without prejudice; the next step is the Draft forecast of 2027/28 tariffs in November 2026.
Source: NESO, "October 2026 Forecast TNUoS Tariffs – Five-Year View 2027/28–2031/32" (report) — https://www.neso.energy/october-2026-forecast-tnuos-tariffs-five-year-view-202728-203132-report-v10