EIA: US small-scale solar generation has quadrupled in a decade to 93,000 GWh

Serguey Asael Shinder17 October 2026, 08:432 min read

The U.S. Energy Information Administration reported on 16 October 2026 that it estimates generation from small-scale solar — rooftop and other photovoltaic systems smaller than 1 MW — has risen from 18,812 gigawatt-hours (GWh) to 92,979 GWh over the last decade, roughly a fourfold increase. The figures come from EIA's Annual Electric Power Industry Report.

Where it is concentrated. The four largest states are California, Arizona, Texas and Florida, all in sunnier regions; New York ranks fifth despite lower solar resources, which EIA attributes to capacity growth helped by state incentives. California accounted for 37% (34,411 GWh) of the 2025 US total, with generation up 8% year over year as capacity grew from 18 GW in 2024 to 20 GW in 2025. Arizona is next at just over 6% (5,795 GWh). Texas grew from 391 GWh in 2016 to 5,408 GWh last year, and Florida from 205 GWh to 5,198 GWh over the same period.

Policy shows up in the numbers. EIA notes that year-over-year growth was unusually high in 2022, at 25%, partly because of changes to support programs. California's Net Energy Metering (NEM) 2.0, available through April 2023, offered higher export compensation than the later Net Billing Tariff (NEM 3.0); capacity built under NEM 2.0 was grandfathered in, which pulled installations forward before NEM 3.0 took effect. Arizona offers a 25% state income-tax credit; Florida and Texas use property-tax exemptions and other programs; New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts and Illinois run their own incentives. Overall, EIA says, the rate of growth has declined since 2022 even as absolute generation keeps rising.

How the estimate is made — and its limits. Utilities generally do not know how much electricity rooftop solar produces on their distribution systems, so EIA estimates it. It collects customer counts and aggregate capacity through its surveys, then models generation using tools such as the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's System Advisor Model and PVWatts, with California data on common tilt angles and orientations used as inputs for other states. So these are modelled estimates, not metered totals — which is why the number describes a trend rather than an exact meter reading.

Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration, "U.S. small-scale solar generation has quadrupled in the last decade" — https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=68324