Tripling renewables by 2030 now needs 1,200 GW a year, IRENA tracker says
Victoria Shinder2 min readThe world installed a record 693 gigawatts of renewable power capacity in 2025, reaching 5.15 terawatts, but must build more in 2026-2030 than in all previous years combined to meet the goal of tripling renewables by 2030. That is the finding of the third tracking report on the COP28 energy goals, released on 21 September by the International Renewable Energy Agency, the COP31 Presidency Türkiye and the Global Renewables Alliance during Climate Week NYC.
The arithmetic is the headline. The tripling target is 11.2 TW by 2030, so installed capacity must more than double from today's level, which means average additions of about 1,200 GW a year - well above last year's record. The second COP28 goal is going worse: energy intensity improved by about 2% in 2025, against the 4% a year needed to double the rate of energy efficiency improvement.
The report's recommendations focus on bottlenecks rather than on generation itself. It calls for grid investment of nearly USD1 trillion a year from 2026 to 2030, more than double 2025 levels; faster deployment of batteries, storage and flexibility to meet rising demand; combinations of solar, wind and storage that provide firm, around-the-clock power; and the use of digitalisation and AI to match demand with clean supply. IRENA Director-General Francesco La Camera said renewables can still close the gap, but that efficiency is falling behind, electricity demand is rising faster than expected and grids have not kept pace - and that there are signs capacity expansion could slow.
What it means
The target was set as a multiple, and multiples get harder every year they are missed. A record year at 693 GW still leaves the required rate nearly twice as high, and each year of shortfall raises it further.
The more useful signal is where the report points: grids. Generation has been the easy part to scale, because panels and turbines are modular and cheap. Networks are neither, and a doubling of annual grid investment is the recommendation most likely to decide whether the capacity target is met - and whether capacity already built can be used.