US module forward prices sit 19% above spot before Section 232 floors
Victoria Shinder2 min readSolar module prices went nowhere this week, and the forward curves say that will not last. In its weekly update for pv magazine, OPIS reports that its Chinese Module Marker - the benchmark for TOPCon modules below 645W from China - was unchanged at $0.108 per watt free on board in its 22 September assessment, with trading thin ahead of China's Golden Week holiday.
Chinese demand remains weak. According to the figures OPIS cites, cumulative installations in China reached 97.19GW in January to August, down more than 57.9% on the same period of 2025, and August additions were 11.04GW, down 21.6% from July. Domestic ex-works prices have risen about 3.4% since the start of August while export FOB prices stayed flat, which market participants attributed to manufacturers concentrating on overseas sales. The forward curve for China has weakened: first- quarter 2027 loadings were assessed at a $0.02/W discount to spot, against a slight premium in late June.
In the United States, delivered-duty-paid prices for imported TOPCon modules of 645W and below held at $0.290/W, with Southeast Asian cargoes quoted at $0.277/W and Indian cargoes at $0.332/W. US-assembled modules with imported cells rose 0.63% to $0.321/W. The forward curve is where Section 232 shows: indications for the first two quarters of 2027 were $0.345/W, compared with $0.29/W in July, as the minimum import prices set by the August proclamation approach their 4 December start.
Traders do not agree on what the floors will do. OPIS quotes sources disputing whether US-assembled modules using imported cells would fall under the $0.38/W module floor or could be priced from the $0.22/W cell floor plus tariff, and whether imports would disappear or keep some competitiveness.
What it means
The two markets are pulling in opposite directions. China has a large surplus and weak domestic installation, and its forward curve now sits below spot; the US is about to put a legal floor under imported prices, and its forward curve sits about 19% above spot. Spot prices are flat in both only because buyers and sellers are waiting.
For US developers, the forward figure is the one to plan around. Until customs guidance settles how the first arm's-length sale rule treats imported cells, contracts for deliveries after 4 December carry a price risk that neither side can yet quantify.