Heat pumps were close to half of US HVAC shipments in July, and electric water heaters outsold gas
Victoria Shinder1 min readHeat pump shipments in the United States reached near-record levels in July, making up close to half of all HVAC units shipped, according to equipment shipment data from the Air-Conditioning, Heating, and Refrigeration Institute (AHRI) reported by Utility Dive on 5 October.
The July numbers. Heat pump shipments rose 17.6% year on year; only July 2024 saw more heat pumps shipped in that month. Cooling shipments have risen year on year for six consecutive months. Electric water heaters outsold gas units by about 52,000, although electric water-heater shipments were 3.9% lower than a year earlier.
The long trend. Since July 2016, electric water heater shipments are up 23% and heat pump shipments close to 77%. Over ten years, heat pump shipments grew 172.7%, against an 80% increase for combined air-conditioning and heat pump units.
Commercial water heating. A report from the Advanced Water Heating Initiative (AWHI) says commercial heat pump water heater technology has improved significantly in the past few years. Some manufacturers have started producing central units, and the market for small units is spreading from multifamily buildings into commercial kitchens and other small commercial uses. Manufacturers are also adding communication features so operators can shift load and shed operating periods.
The headwind. Heat pump water heaters lost their federal tax credits at the end of 2025, which immediately reduced demand, AWHI notes. It expects new IECC building codes and state mandates for all-electric buildings or low-GWP refrigerants, such as New York's, to keep sales growing.
For utilities, the communication features are the part to watch, because they are what turns a water heater into a load that can be moved in time.