ACER: EU gas storage at 75%, with US LNG now about 30% of supply
Serguey Asael Shinder1 min readEU gas storage stood at 75% on 21 October 2026, according to ACER's latest gas monitoring report on the summer season. Stocks remain below historical levels after a slow refill: at the end of winter 2025-2026 underground storage was at 28% of capacity, down from 34% a year earlier.
ACER puts the upper-bound cost of refilling storage this year at €27 billion, with the average cost of injected gas the second highest in a decade. It estimates that the conflict in the Middle East added €18–33 billion to Europe's import bill for the same volume of gas. Spot EU hub prices closed near €90/MWh in mid-October.
The supply mix has shifted. US LNG now accounts for around 30% of total EU gas supply and Russian gas around 11%; no significant volumes of Qatari LNG reached the EU this summer, and total EU LNG imports fell by 14%. Hot weather and drought raised gas-fired generation by nearly 9% over the summer and by 20% in August compared with 2025.
For the winter, ACER expects the EU to start with storage below the nine-year average but notes that demand is about 20% lower than before the 2022 crisis, which raises the relative value of current stocks. Additional LNG is expected to come mainly from the US, given reduced Qatari supply and the phase-out of Russian LNG from January 2027.
What it means
The headline 75% understates the exposure: the EU is entering winter more dependent on one supplier for marginal cargoes, while competing with Asia for flexible spot LNG. Weather now decides the price, and a cold January would show up first in power prices, since gas sets them in many hours.